This is a the fourth problem I have planned in my FWYM series. So far I've chosen one problem on subtraction, one that focuses on logic, and one that uses combinatorics. This next problem gets into probability by looking at coin flips.Of the first four FWYM problems, I am most interested in seeing students' strategies for this one. I have no idea what approach they will take. I would use a tree diagram to figure out the probability of winning. I doubt, though, that many students will have been exposed to that strategy or develop it on their own.
I could imagine a third grader playing the game over and over again and tallying how many times each party won. Like a by-hand Monte Carlo simulation. That would be a really interesting way of solving this. Not as accurate as a theoretical calculation but still likely to be pretty accurate if simulated enough times.
I am also interested to see what language and mathematics younger students use to describe "chances." Some may answer this simply as "Mr. Auer has a better chance than I do." That is correct, but they can be more specific of course.
Here is a 2 per sheet printable.